Worst-Case Scenario

Consider the following exchange:

Tom: The forecast calls for rain this afternoon; do you still want to go to the baseball game?
Bob: I think so. Worst-case scenario: we get a little wet and we have to leave early.

How many times have you heard something like this? Worst-case scenario: we stop for dinner at Taco Bell. Worst-case scenario: you get a little rash. Worst-case scenario: I stay an extra hour at work.

The fact is that most of these supposed worst-case scenarios represent a serious lack of imagination. If the worst possible outcome that you can imagine for some event is that it rains at a baseball game, then you certainly have a rosy worldview. [You would also make a pretty lousy science-fiction writer].

So next time you are tempted to make a 'worst-case scenario' claim, consider the following:

• Am I being chased by killer bees?
• Did I forget to put on deodorant this morning?
• Follow up question: can I smell myself?
  
• Am I watching Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen?
• Has a sink-hole opened up, swallowing the entire city?
• Have my fingers fused together to form a sort of 'hand-paddle'?
• Am I experiencing disorienting vertigo?
• Is there no joy left in my life?
• Are my socks wet?
• Has the earth been subjugated by a cruel race of telekinetic aliens?

If you answered 'no' to any of those questions, then I would posit that you are not actually talking about a 'worst-case scenario.'

Now, there may be some kill-joys out there who complain and say, "Joel, when we say 'worst-case scenario' we don't mean the worst of all possible outcomes, just the worse of two outcomes, one favorable, one unfavorable (for example: rain at the baseball game, or no rain at the baseball game)." To them I respond: Not my problem. This is still not a worst-case scenario.

Questions for Discussion:

1. What is the ultimate worst-case scenario?
2. What is worse, a sink-hole or a tsunami?
3. Or an alien invasion?